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Data Highlights
Monday, April 28, 2014
23:45 GMT New Zealand Trade Balance
The New Zealand economy has been on a bit of a hot streak over the last few months as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has fanned the flames of a recovery by raising interest rates 50 basis points over their last two meetings. The Trade Balance has improved right along with the sentiment by posting a surplus each of the last four months and ascending to the 818M last month. Last month’s reading was the highest since the May 2011 release, and this month is expected to be even more positive with consensus around 910M. If the hot streak continues, the NZD could regain its favored status.
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
9:30 GMT UK Gross Domestic Product
The market expects another good quarter of growth for the UK, with the Bank of England anticipating a 1% quarterly increase. The market is looking for a slightly lower rate of 0.9%, but traders will also watch out for further recovery in the manufacturing sector, after the CBI industrial trends survey rose to its highest level since 1973 in April. Any upside surprise in the GDP data could trigger some appreciation in sterling after the pound struggled last week.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
4:00 GMT Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Early last week, in the midst of a market panic over Ukraine, the Japanese Cabinet announced that they were downgrading their economic assessment in their April report. The premature announcement not only caught investors off guard by reacting sooner to an anticipated slowdown due to a sales tax hike, but also opened up the possibility of other Japanese institutions to front run official results as well, namely the Bank of Japan. Could the BoJ actually increase Quantitative Easing before they officially see the deleterious effects of the sales tax increase? By and large,that is not expected but remains a possibility. If they don’t do anything drastic, the market may be disappointed, and the USD/JPY may finally break its recent range and test the psychologically-relevant 100 level.
10:00 GMT Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Price Index
This is a crucial reading that could determine the next move by the ECB (see our ECB section for more). Inflation fell to 0.5% for March, its lowest reading since 2009, which sparked fears that the Eurozone may be entering deflation. At the April ECB meeting, Mario Draghi suggested that the ECB could take further accommodative action if prices continued to fall; however, he sounded confident that the timing of the Easter holiday could boost prices this month. The market is expecting prices to increase to 0.8%, which may give the ECB some breathing room. If prices miss expectations, this could trigger a fresh wave of EUR selling as the market may start to price in the prospect of QE from the ECB next week.
13:30 GMT US Gross Domestic Product
Remember the last couple of months where we were blaming every single economic miss in the US on weather-related effects? That was fun, wasn’t it? Well, get ready for another round of meteorological finger pointing as the first release for US GDP in Q1 2014 is released. Since most of the bone-chilling weather occurred in January and February, GDP will likely be impacted. Fear not though, financial pundits will return to play weathermen and remind you how cold it was. Consensus has set the bar relatively low at 1.1%, so if this were to somehow beat that expectation, the reaction could be very good for the USD.
13:30 GMT Canadian Gross Domestic Product
Unlike the US, who likes to blame it on the rain (or snow in this case), Canada is much less influenced by the cold weather. Also, Canada releases their GDP on a monthly, rather than quarterly, basis. Consensus is hovering near 0.2% for the month of February, which is actually simply the average (rounded up) over the last 12 releases. The Bank of Canada has recently become less sure of the future, which could indicate that they see a slowing economy and would be reflected in GDP. If this were to miss expectations, the USD/CAD might finally break away from the 1.10 level it has been stalking.
19:00 GMT Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Decision and Statement
The Fed is expected to continue along their predetermined course of tapering Quantitative Easing by another $10B and remaining upbeat, but skeptical, of the future. Inflationary figures have recently turned higher, which should give Janet Yellen and her compatriots a sense of ease, but recent housing sales declines could keep them on the defensive. Since there is no press conference following the Statement release, the market will pore over the changes to the statement and could become more convinced that QE really is going away. There still are small vestiges of investors out there who think that the Fed will pause the taper, and as they slowly concede that there may be no pause, a stock selloff could manifest itself despite the Fed’s upbeat tone.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
2:45 GMT Chinese Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI
The HSBC read on Chinese Manufacturing has been languishing below the 50 level now for all of 2014 and is becoming less and less relevant as it slowly drops. At this point, nobody will be surprised if it falls again, but if it were to somehow challenge 50 again, positivity may abound.
9:30 GMT UK Markit Manufacturing PMI
The market is looking for a slight increase to 55.5 from 55.3. Watch out for new orders, a key lead indicator, to see if momentum in the manufacturing sector can last into the second quarter. It is also worth watching new export orders as any slowdown could be attributed to the strength of the pound since the start of this year.
Friday, May 2, 2014
2:00 GMT Australian New Home Sales
There is a bit of a power struggle going on Down Under as the government’s Budget office isn’t too fond of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s shift in policy stance from dovish to neutral. The RBA’s enthusiasm, subdued as it may be, has paved the way for the AUD to climb higher against her counterparts, which is messing up the numbers for the government. Australian inflation missing its mark this past week helped to knock the AUD down a few pegs
, whichdiffused the kerfuffle slightly, but still doesn’t change the RBA’s stance. Aussie Home Sales could diffuse it even more though as it has the potential to recoil from last month’s strong surge of 4.6%. In the recent past, strong figures have been followed up by negative figures the next month, and if that trend were to continue, the AUD could pull back even further.
9:00 GMT Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI
The market expects no change to the initial reading at 53.4, which is a slight deterioration from the peak in January of 54.4, but remains respectable and suggests continued growth in the currency bloc.
9:30 GMT UK Markit Construction PMI
Construction data is expected to remain strong in April. This index has been above 60.00 all year, suggesting a construction boom could boost growth well into Q2.
10:00 GMT Eurozone Unemployment Rate
The market expects no change in the March unemployment rate at 11.9%. Progress on the unemployment front remains painfully low as jobless rates remain elevated in the periphery. Watch out for the German unemployment rate released on 30th April. The market expects another drop in the number of unemployed, but for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.7%.
13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
What better way to tie up a busy week than with the critical NFP report? The trading world’s favorite tradable economic release could be a little more volatile this time around due to some important leading employment figures being released after NFP, which only creates more uncertainty. Consensus is north of 200k as the week begins, but could change as we approach the end of the week. Unemployment is expected to fall down to 6.6% from 6.7%, but if it were to fall further to the Fed’s old target of 6.5%, the old “Sell in May and Go Away” adage may have to wait till next week to come to fruition.
Monday, April 28, 2014
23:45 GMT New Zealand Trade Balance
The New Zealand economy has been on a bit of a hot streak over the last few months as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand has fanned the flames of a recovery by raising interest rates 50 basis points over their last two meetings. The Trade Balance has improved right along with the sentiment by posting a surplus each of the last four months and ascending to the 818M last month. Last month’s reading was the highest since the May 2011 release, and this month is expected to be even more positive with consensus around 910M. If the hot streak continues, the NZD could regain its favored status.
Tuesday, April 29, 2014
9:30 GMT UK Gross Domestic Product
The market expects another good quarter of growth for the UK, with the Bank of England anticipating a 1% quarterly increase. The market is looking for a slightly lower rate of 0.9%, but traders will also watch out for further recovery in the manufacturing sector, after the CBI industrial trends survey rose to its highest level since 1973 in April. Any upside surprise in the GDP data could trigger some appreciation in sterling after the pound struggled last week.
Wednesday, April 30, 2014
4:00 GMT Bank of Japan Interest Rate Decision and Press Conference
Early last week, in the midst of a market panic over Ukraine, the Japanese Cabinet announced that they were downgrading their economic assessment in their April report. The premature announcement not only caught investors off guard by reacting sooner to an anticipated slowdown due to a sales tax hike, but also opened up the possibility of other Japanese institutions to front run official results as well, namely the Bank of Japan. Could the BoJ actually increase Quantitative Easing before they officially see the deleterious effects of the sales tax increase? By and large,that is not expected but remains a possibility. If they don’t do anything drastic, the market may be disappointed, and the USD/JPY may finally break its recent range and test the psychologically-relevant 100 level.
10:00 GMT Eurozone Preliminary Consumer Price Index
This is a crucial reading that could determine the next move by the ECB (see our ECB section for more). Inflation fell to 0.5% for March, its lowest reading since 2009, which sparked fears that the Eurozone may be entering deflation. At the April ECB meeting, Mario Draghi suggested that the ECB could take further accommodative action if prices continued to fall; however, he sounded confident that the timing of the Easter holiday could boost prices this month. The market is expecting prices to increase to 0.8%, which may give the ECB some breathing room. If prices miss expectations, this could trigger a fresh wave of EUR selling as the market may start to price in the prospect of QE from the ECB next week.
13:30 GMT US Gross Domestic Product
Remember the last couple of months where we were blaming every single economic miss in the US on weather-related effects? That was fun, wasn’t it? Well, get ready for another round of meteorological finger pointing as the first release for US GDP in Q1 2014 is released. Since most of the bone-chilling weather occurred in January and February, GDP will likely be impacted. Fear not though, financial pundits will return to play weathermen and remind you how cold it was. Consensus has set the bar relatively low at 1.1%, so if this were to somehow beat that expectation, the reaction could be very good for the USD.
13:30 GMT Canadian Gross Domestic Product
Unlike the US, who likes to blame it on the rain (or snow in this case), Canada is much less influenced by the cold weather. Also, Canada releases their GDP on a monthly, rather than quarterly, basis. Consensus is hovering near 0.2% for the month of February, which is actually simply the average (rounded up) over the last 12 releases. The Bank of Canada has recently become less sure of the future, which could indicate that they see a slowing economy and would be reflected in GDP. If this were to miss expectations, the USD/CAD might finally break away from the 1.10 level it has been stalking.
19:00 GMT Federal Reserve’s Monetary Policy Decision and Statement
The Fed is expected to continue along their predetermined course of tapering Quantitative Easing by another $10B and remaining upbeat, but skeptical, of the future. Inflationary figures have recently turned higher, which should give Janet Yellen and her compatriots a sense of ease, but recent housing sales declines could keep them on the defensive. Since there is no press conference following the Statement release, the market will pore over the changes to the statement and could become more convinced that QE really is going away. There still are small vestiges of investors out there who think that the Fed will pause the taper, and as they slowly concede that there may be no pause, a stock selloff could manifest itself despite the Fed’s upbeat tone.
Thursday, May 1, 2014
2:45 GMT Chinese Final HSBC Manufacturing PMI
The HSBC read on Chinese Manufacturing has been languishing below the 50 level now for all of 2014 and is becoming less and less relevant as it slowly drops. At this point, nobody will be surprised if it falls again, but if it were to somehow challenge 50 again, positivity may abound.
9:30 GMT UK Markit Manufacturing PMI
The market is looking for a slight increase to 55.5 from 55.3. Watch out for new orders, a key lead indicator, to see if momentum in the manufacturing sector can last into the second quarter. It is also worth watching new export orders as any slowdown could be attributed to the strength of the pound since the start of this year.
Friday, May 2, 2014
2:00 GMT Australian New Home Sales
There is a bit of a power struggle going on Down Under as the government’s Budget office isn’t too fond of the Reserve Bank of Australia’s shift in policy stance from dovish to neutral. The RBA’s enthusiasm, subdued as it may be, has paved the way for the AUD to climb higher against her counterparts, which is messing up the numbers for the government. Australian inflation missing its mark this past week helped to knock the AUD down a few pegs
, whichdiffused the kerfuffle slightly, but still doesn’t change the RBA’s stance. Aussie Home Sales could diffuse it even more though as it has the potential to recoil from last month’s strong surge of 4.6%. In the recent past, strong figures have been followed up by negative figures the next month, and if that trend were to continue, the AUD could pull back even further.
, whichdiffused the kerfuffle slightly, but still doesn’t change the RBA’s stance. Aussie Home Sales could diffuse it even more though as it has the potential to recoil from last month’s strong surge of 4.6%. In the recent past, strong figures have been followed up by negative figures the next month, and if that trend were to continue, the AUD could pull back even further.
9:00 GMT Eurozone Markit Manufacturing PMI
The market expects no change to the initial reading at 53.4, which is a slight deterioration from the peak in January of 54.4, but remains respectable and suggests continued growth in the currency bloc.
9:30 GMT UK Markit Construction PMI
Construction data is expected to remain strong in April. This index has been above 60.00 all year, suggesting a construction boom could boost growth well into Q2.
10:00 GMT Eurozone Unemployment Rate
The market expects no change in the March unemployment rate at 11.9%. Progress on the unemployment front remains painfully low as jobless rates remain elevated in the periphery. Watch out for the German unemployment rate released on 30th April. The market expects another drop in the number of unemployed, but for the unemployment rate to remain at 6.7%.
13:30 GMT US Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment Rate
What better way to tie up a busy week than with the critical NFP report? The trading world’s favorite tradable economic release could be a little more volatile this time around due to some important leading employment figures being released after NFP, which only creates more uncertainty. Consensus is north of 200k as the week begins, but could change as we approach the end of the week. Unemployment is expected to fall down to 6.6% from 6.7%, but if it were to fall further to the Fed’s old target of 6.5%, the old “Sell in May and Go Away” adage may have to wait till next week to come to fruition.
